UK Electric Vehicle Sales: The Road to 2030

26 July 20228 min read

In June 2022, the new car sales market was down by 24.3% compared to the same month the year previous, equating to the worst car sales since 1996.

Despite this, the overall market picture for EVs paints a very different and positive picture.

Electric car sales have soared in recent years as a result of increasing consumer demand, more electric models available than ever before, and Government incentives.

In 2021, EV registrations climbed an enormous 77% compared to registrations in 2020. As of May 2022, there are more than 870,000 electric vehicles on UK roads.

As the UK moves towards a net-zero transport system, electric car sales are expected to continue to escalate rapidly. However, we still have a long way to go before the UK’s drivers adopt EVs, as it is estimated that of all new car registrations, BEVs have a market share of 16.1% (as of June 2022).

Here at Allstar, we’re passionate about the EV revolution and are particularly interested in how electric vehicle sales might progress in the next 10 years. We’ve used the latest published vehicle licensing statistics to predict the annual rises in plug-in registrations.

But, before we dive into the data, we should point out that our data refers to a subcategory of electric vehicles: PHEV.

The PHEV subcategory includes plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and any motor that is powered by a source of electricity using plug-in technology.

In this blog, we’ll give you our predictions and shine some light on the current EV market share, as well as where the UK holds up against the rest of Europe in EV adoption.

How many electric vehicles have been registered in the UK so far?

We’ve picked apart the data starting from 2011 to find out how plug-in EVs have been popularised over the years. Despite the concept of electric-powered vehicles being by no means a new one, electric cars only started to go mainstream in the UK from 2010.

Referring to the data sourced by the UK Government, it is apparent that, from 2011 to 2013, the annual registrations remained steady, with just 3700 plug-in EVs on the road by the end of 2013.

EV sales (including PHEV) surged in 2014 by a huge 300% due to Government incentives put in place that year - the tax exemptions and £5,000 grants were certainly a strong factor in this uptake.

By 2015, plug-in electric cars accounted for almost 1.1% of new car sales, up from 0.59% in 2014.

Since then, registration data suggests that the average growth rate year on year (YoY) for plug-in EVs from 2009 to 2021 has been an impressive 41.89%.

2022 electric market statistics: How far have we come this year?

According to Zap-Map, sales of plug-in vehicles have reached an all time high. Of the 870,000 plus plug-in electric vehicles on the road as of May 2022, over 480,000 are battery electric and 390,000 known to be plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

The data collected from the Government source only calculates registrations up to 2021, but from it we can use the average 41.89% YoY growth rate to estimate that the total number of plug-in EVs registered in the UK by the end of 2022 will be an additional 400k.

A month-on-month analysis of registered electric vehicles

EV registrations are rising exponentially on a monthly basis so far this year. In May 2022 alone, there were 22,787 new registrations (15,448 BEVs and 7,339 were PHEVs). This means that, during this month, the market share for plug-in vehicles was 18.30% - which is up YoY from May 2021, whereby the market share was just edging on 15%.

However, bear in mind that March and September are new registration plate months in the UK, which can have an impact on the peaks and drops in the market share throughout the year.

Overall, EVs account for just over 20% of the market share so far this year.

How does the UK compare to other European countries?

It’s predicted that the UK will have Europe's third-largest EV fleet by 2030, which is why this country has been ranked the third best country in Europe for driving electric vehicles.

A report conducted annually, titled the EV Readiness Index, considered various factors to conclude which European country was best prepared for EV adoption. Factors included EV registration projections, charging infrastructure and the incentives available in each of the countries in Europe.

Norway still reigns as a global leader in EV adoption

First on the leaderboard is Norway, a country that boasts affordable electric vehicles and imposes a large sum of tax on fossil-fuel cars. This makes adoption in Norway much easier, with prices encouraging the population to pick the cost-effective option.

Norway has also invested heavily in charging infrastructure. The Norwegian government has ramped up installation and accessibility of charging stations - paving the way for a bright, EV future.

The Netherlands comes second with an impressive charging infrastructure

Like Norway, the Netherlands is setting an example for the rest of Europe with their taxation policies and charging accessibility. This country has more public charging stations than any other country.

The UK is way ahead of other countries

As the third-best prepared country, the UK has an impressive forecast for EV adoption with incentives that exceed many other countries.

Poland, for example, offers minimal tax support for EV ownership, and the energy costs in this country are extremely high. This makes EV adoption challenging, as the costs of charging an electric vehicle are very expensive.

The Czech Republic is one of the many countries that are looking to transition to a more environmentally friendly fleet of vehicles. However, while they have a number of incentives in place that encourage EV adoption and use, there are still some barriers keeping them from reaching their goal.

One of these is the lack of a comprehensive national charging infrastructure. In fact, there are currently only 5,000 registered EVs in all of the country.

The road to 2030: How will the UK charging network facilitate EV growth?

The UK is just one of the countries leading the charge to end new car sales of petrol and diesel engines by 2030.

This move is part of a wider plan to reduce carbon emissions and make the UK's roads safer.

Current growth patterns suggest that only 60% of new cars could be electric by the 2030 deadline, with a 300% uplift in EV sales over the next decade. This suggests that manufacturers must produce more electric vehicles to meet the new car requirements imposed by 2030.

YoY growth also suggests that by 2030, EV sales could hit over 7 million. In order to reach Net Zero by 2050, all vehicles must be fossil fuel free, including heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs). EV sales for passenger vehicles and vans would need to increase from about 400,000 today to 23.2 million by 2032.

The development of the public charging network

As EV sales continue to surge each year, the UK must keep up with public charging stations to facilitate the electric takeover. Lack of charging infrastructure is a pressing issue Europe-wide, one which must be tackled by every country to meet the zero emission goal.

Currently, the UK has one of the most extensive networks of rapid chargers in Europe. There are now over 42 ,000 public charging stations in the UK. Currently, London provides the biggest concentration of public charging points, but the entire country must speed up installing to make EV charging easier.

To keep up with the growing sales of electric cars, the UK Government plans to build more than 300,000 public electric car chargers by 2030. This equates to more than 5 times the number of fuel points available in the country today.

In order to tackle growing car sales, the new Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy states that a £1.6 billion investment will be put into the expansion of the UK’s charging network. These funds will help to install more rapid chargers and help fund more on-street charging - making EV drivers’ lives easier and driving more efficient.

The EV solutions at Allstar: Making charging simple with our charging cards

Is your business ready for EV adoption? Let us simplify charging for your fleet through the help of our two solutions - providing you with an easier way to pay for charging.

Charge on the road with our Allstar One Electric charging card to help you streamline your operations and improve driver efficiency. Allstar One Electric is our combined fuel and electric charging card, giving you access to over 5,700 charge points across a multi-branded electric charging network.

Charge at home with Allstar Homecharge, powered by Mina, to help streamline payments for EV fleets charging at home. Payments are made directly to a driver’s energy supplier for all home charging sessions - taking the complication out of reimbursement when drivers charge at home.

One consolidated invoice. Accurate billing. Reduced administration. Everything you need in one place.